Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Suitable Habitat of Japanese Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) Based on the Species Distribution Model

Japanese Spanish mackerel ( Scomberomorus niphonius ) is an important commercial fish species with a seasonal migratory habit in China. At present, no study has reported the variation of its potential suitable habitat. Therefore, we used biomod2 ensemble model to predict habitat S. different seasons through current distribution sites and future environmental variables. Our results showed that had high accuracy, true skill statistics receiver operator characteristic values 0.91 0.98, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, reduction rate habitats summer 2050 will be 33.2%, those for rest reach 3.5%. The 2100 43.5%, remaining 6.5%. In addition, this become more serious increase emission scenario time, especially RCP8.5 which as 88.9%. Habitat changes show strong temperature sensitivity. centroid shift higher latitudes under RCP 8.5. Depth are two most factors affect species. can provide basic data understanding adaptability climate change establishing elastic ecosystem.